By moving to the far right, did Orbán create space in the political centre for an adversary?

Hungary sealed its border with Serbia on 15 September. Since then refugees can only enter legally at two ”entry points”. If they force their entry by scaling the fence along the border, they commit a crime – based on a new Law in force also as of 15 September, and this automatically disqualifies them from receiving asylum. Continue reading

The art of deception

Government mouthpiece napigazdasá today announced in a headline: The die has turned, Fidesz-KDNP improved again. According to their story, Századvég’s latest opinion polls shows that Fidesz KDNP is on the rise again. Századvég is a think-tank that thrives almost exclusively on government and Fidesz contracts. All news portals reprinted the news without checking the data.

Although the conclusion and the data did not differ much from what we wrote on 11 June based on the average of the polling results of three other companies, we were suspicions, as for the past few months we were searching for Századvég polling results in vain. Continue reading

Has Jobbik really changed?

Now, that Jobbik is claiming to be just another conservative-nationalist party, we have looked at its 2014 election program that is still presented on Jobbik’s web page as its current program of action. We are showing two sections, Law enforcement/Dealing with the past and Foreign Affairs in order to enable English speakers to also take a peek into the world of Jobbik. We have used the translation of Jobbik, unless we believed that it did not accurately reflect the Hungarian original. Continue reading

National Consultation a scam

On February 13 during his regular Friday morning radio interview, Prime Minister Vikor Orbán announced that he would initiate a “national consultation” about immigration, in order to receive a mandate from the Hungarian people that the Hungarian authorities should be authorized – contrary to EU regulation in force – to arrest illegal migrants, lock them up and deport them swiftly. Upon receiving this mandate he would make sure that Brussels accepted the Hungarian position. Continue reading

Fidesz campaign to polish image in full swing

Following several years of undetected fraudulent activity, three brokerages have gone bust over the last month, with losses amounting to several 100 millions of Euros in total. The political parties were keen to shove the ugly frog into each other’s shoes; obviously no one was keen to kiss it. Continue reading

Fidesz would have to form minority government according to Index simulation

Index published this morning an interesting, though simple simulation of the election results, based on the recent by-elections, where Fidesz received almost 50% less votes that in the last elections in April 2014. In the simulation Index subtracted 30% from the votes cast for the winning candidates in the single member constituencies in 2014, leaving the votes of the second placed unchanged, as has been the case in the two last by-elections in Veszprém County. Continue reading

Can the opposition unite to prevent Fidesz from pushing Bills through Parliament with supermajority?

When Fidesz lost its two-thirds majority in February, we predicted that this would not be that significant, as the opposition MPs would not show up for votes, either out of sheer ignorance or because of being “persuaded” not to show up. The first such vote early March seemed to confirm our prediction, as one Jobbik MP stayed home due to some hard to believe story about “the gipsy mafia” threatening him and his family. This week, however, the Fidesz MPs were the undisciplined ones, by either voting against the party line (by accident or deliberately) or by not being present during voting. Continue reading

Final result of the by-election in the Ajka – Tapolca – Sümeg constituency

The final count published by the National Election Office this afternoon confirmed the preliminary result from Sunday night. Lajos Rig from Jobbik has increased his lead to 365 votes or 1.22% against Zoltán Fenyvesi from Fidesz-KDNP, and has been elected to parliament. Ferenc Pad from MSZP-DK came distant third.


Party discipline will be tested again this week

This week on Tuesday Parliament will vote about five Bills that require a two-thirds supermajority of the MPs present to pass. Last time when the opposition could have defeated the government, a Jobbik MP did not show up, claiming that the “gipsy mafia” had threatened him and his family and he had to stay at home. Actually, the government was defeated once as Lajos Kósa, the Vice President of Fidesz, pushed the wrong button by accident. Continue reading

Is there Fidesz without Orbán?

Yesterday Fidesz lost the by-election by less than 300 votes. It was a very close race indeed. In 2014 it received 7000 votes more than the second placed left wing candidate and 8000 more than the Jobbik candidate in the same constituency. Quite a difference. Fidesz lost in the by-election in Veszprém in Febuary and another one in Budapest in November 2014. The ones lost this year had been solid Fidesz constituencies in the past. Continue reading